Résumé
Миграционная ситуация в России в период пандемии COVID-19 имеет целый ряд признаков кризиса. Этот процесс, как правило, связан с притоком больших масс мигрантов на ограниченную территорию в течение непродолжительного периода времени. В России кризисные явления в миграционной сфере на протяжении 2020 – начала 2022 г. были вызваны закрытием границ и сложным социально-экономическим положением, в котором оказались трудовые мигранты из азиатских стран СНГ. Однако предпосылки этого формировались на протяжении как минимум второй половины 2010-х гг. Во многом они были связаны с заметным увеличением объема и изменением этнической структуры миграционных потоков в пользу выходцев из стран Средней Азии. Одновременно происходило снижение численности трудовых мигрантов из Украины и Молдавии. Черты миграционного кризиса носили преимущественно локальный характер и рельефнее всего проявлялись в наиболее привлекательных для мигрантов регионах – Москве, Санкт-Петербурге и прилегающих к ним областях. Его проявлениями стали массовые акции протеста, беспорядки и конфликты с участием мигрантов, а также заметное обострение их отношений с работодателями, властями и местным населением.Alternate :The migration situation in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic has a number of signs of a migration crisis. The understanding of this phenomenon, which has developed under the influence of the migration crisis of 2014–2015 in the EU countries, is usually associated with the influx of large masses of migrants to a limited territory for a short period of time. In Russia, the crisis phenomena in the migration sphere during 2020 – early 2022 were caused by the closure of borders and the difficult socio-economic situation in which labor migrants from Asian CIS countries who were in the Russian Federation found themselves. However, the prerequisites for this crisis were formed during at least the second half of the 2010s. In many ways, they were associated with a noticeable increase in the volume and change in the ethnic structure of migration flows in favor of immigrants from Central Asian countries. At the same time, there was a decrease in the number of labor migrants from the European CIS countries – Ukraine and Moldova, who received the opportunity to work legally in the EU countries after signing Euroassociation agreements in the mid-2010s. Due to the vast territory of Russia and the unevenness of its economic development, the features of the migration crisis were mainly local in nature and were most clearly manifested in the most attractive regions for migrants – Moscow, St. Petersburg and adjacent areas. Its manifestations were mass protests, riots and conflicts involving migrants, as well as a noticeable aggravation of their relations with employers, authorities and the local population.
Résumé
The hasty withdrawal of US troops and their NATO allies from Afghanistan in August 2021 caused an acute, but local-scale migration crisis. During this crisis, about 200 thousand people were evacuated from the country by the air forces of the Western coalition. The difficult socio-political and economic situation inside Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power poses a threat of a much larger migration crisis. Analogies with the migration consequences of the civil war in Syria, which has been going on since 2011, make it possible to predict the appearance of 8-9.5 million Afghan refugees within a few years who will go to Iran, Pakistan and Central Asia in the event of an aggravation of the internal conflict and further deterioration of the socio-economic situation in Afghanistan. About 1 million of them may end up in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in case of a negative scenario. The appearance of large masses of refugees in Central Asian countries that do not have developed economies will lead to an acute humanitarian crisis. The existence of a visa-free regime between Russia and most of these states will eventually allow immigrants from Afghanistan to freely visit its territory. The penetration of members of radical Islamist organizations based in Afghanistan into the CIS countries is particularly dangerous. The most negative scenario is the spread of a zone of military instability on the territory of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan bordering Afghanistan, where about 50 million people live. The destabilization of these states threatens the emergence of mass forced emigration of their indigenous Muslim population to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Russia. The negative consequences of these processes will be an increase in the burden on the budget, the education, health and social security systems, the aggravation of terrorist threats, the criminogenic situation and interethnic conflicts. In the long term, mass migration from Central Asia will lead to the transformation of the ethno-confessional structure of Russia, which, in the conditions of depopulation of its population due to the COVID-19 epidemic, may become irreversible.